Imagine the Chicago Cubs without Nico Hoerner—it’s a thought that makes any fan cringe. But here’s where it gets controversial: with Hoerner entering his final year of team control, the Cubs face a critical decision: lock him down long-term or risk losing a cornerstone of their infield. Let’s dive into why this decision is far more complex—and intriguing—than it seems.
When the Cubs stunned everyone by signing Alex Bregman this offseason, it created an infield traffic jam, putting Hoerner’s future in question. Yet, Chicago swiftly shut down trade rumors, signaling their commitment to the versatile star. And this is the part most people miss: while the Cubs have let All-Stars walk under Jed Hoyer’s leadership, Hoerner’s unique blend of defensive brilliance and consistent hitting makes him irreplaceable at a premium position. But here’s the catch: turning that commitment into a long-term contract isn’t as simple as it sounds.
The Cubs have already shown their hand by extending Hoerner once before—a three-year, $35 million deal that bought out a year of free agency. Their swift dismissal of trade talks after the Bregman signing further underscores their value for him. Yet, the real question lingers: will Hoerner give up his shot at free agency just months before hitting the open market? Here’s the controversial take: while Hoerner’s speed and consistency are undeniable, his lack of power limits his ceiling compared to other second basemen. That makes a long-term deal into his mid-to-late 30s a riskier bet—but one the Cubs might still need to take.
To gauge what Hoerner’s next contract might look like, let’s compare him to the highest-paid second basemen in MLB today:
- Xander Bogaerts: 11 years, $280 million (Age 30)
- Marcus Semien: 7 years, $175 million (Age 31)
- Jose Altuve: 5 years, $125 million (Age 33)
- Ketel Marte: 6 years, $116.5 million (Age 31)
- Andres Gimenez: 7 years, $106.5 million (Age 24)
- Kristian Campbell: 8 years, $60 million (Age 22)
- Jeff McNeil: 4 years, $50 million (Age 30)
While Hoerner, at 27, is younger than Semien and Altuve were at signing, his lack of power means he’s unlikely to reset the market. Still, with a thin free-agent class next winter, he holds leverage. Here’s the bold prediction: Hoerner’s next deal will likely land around five years, $110 million, placing him just behind Semien and Altuve in average annual value (AAV). This keeps him in Chicago through his age-33 season, offering a chance for another deal before retirement.
Would the Cubs bite? They’d be unwise not to. Hoerner’s two-way value outshines other pending free agents like Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ, and with Matt Shaw unproven, letting Hoerner walk would be a gamble. But here’s the question for you: Is Hoerner worth $22 million per year, or should the Cubs let him test free agency? Let’s debate in the comments—because if the Cubs don’t pay him, someone else will.
