Evening Wrap: ASX 200 closes week at record as rare earths stocks rally, LYC +10%, Coles dumps 7% on earnings
The S&P/ASX 200 closed 23.3 points higher, up 0.25%.
The ASX 200 finished modestly higher in a mixed session as investors digested the final wave of reporting season. Big gains and losses were again on tap, with winners and losers driven more by earnings reactions than broader macro themes.
Telecommunications (XTJ) (+1.3%) led the market as beaten-down online classifieds rebounded from recent AI-driven selling — REA Group (REA) (+4.1%) and CAR Group (CAR) (+4.6%) were standout performers. Resources (XJR) (+1.1%) also gained as continued strength in bulk commodities and rare earths supported the sector. BHP Group (BHP) (+1.1%) led the advance, closing at a record high.
Consumer Staples (XSJ) (-2.7%) lagged as earnings disappointment in supermarkets weighed on the sector, Coles (COL) (-6.5%) and Woolworths (WOW) (-1.0%) dragged. Information Technology (XIJ) (-0.3%) eased as the sector took a breather following a sharp two-day rebound, with Wisetech Global (WTC) (-3.0%) lower, but it wasn't all bad news as Technology One (TNE) added +4.6%.
In stock specific news:
Block (XYZ) (+27.8%) — surged after strong earnings and aggressive cost-cutting via AI-driven efficiencies.
Bapcor (BAP) (-49.3%) — slumped following a heavily discounted capital raising and earnings downgrades.
Harvey Norman (HVN) (-9.0%) — fell after results missed expectations despite solid profit growth.
PEXA Group (PXA) (+4.7%) — gained after a strong earnings beat and margin expansion.
Humm Group (HUM) (+5.3%) — rose on takeover developments and governance changes.
Coles Group (COL) (-7.4%) — dropped on weaker-than-expected sales growth and heightened competition concerns.
In commodities, gold and silver were modestly higher in Asian trade, with gold up 0.2% to around US$5,205/oz and silver rising 3.7% to US$90.81/oz.
Lithium prices edged lower in China, with lithium carbonate futures down 0.6%, weighing on Liontown (LTR) (-6.1%) and IGO (IGO) (-3.5%). Rare earths stocks rallied strongly, with Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) (+9.3%) and Iluka Resources (ILU) (+9.1%) leading the pack.
Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.
Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.
Let's dive in!
Today in Review
Fri 27 Feb 26, 5:20pm (AEST)
Name
Value
% Chg
Major Indices
ASX 200 9,198.6
+0.25%
All Ords 9,435.6
+0.29%
Small Ords 3,762.1
+0.22%
All Tech 2,850.2
+1.86%
Emerging Companies 3,328.3
+2.01%
Currency
AUD/USD 0.7128
+0.32%
US Futures
S&P 500 6,902.0
-0.26%
Dow Jones 49,299.0
-0.47%
Nasdaq 25,039.0
-0.17%
Name
Value
% Chg
Sector
Utilities 10,122.3
+1.41%
Communication Services 1,713.7
+1.28%
Materials 25,341.5
+1.00%
Energy 9,591.6
+0.94%
Industrials 8,632.4
+0.64%
Real Estate 3,690.6
+0.50%
Health Care 29,856.8
+0.10%
Consumer Discretionary 3,693.8
-0.05%
Financials 9,957.6
-0.24%
Information Technology 1,781.2
-0.33%
Consumer Staples 12,511.6
-2.69%
Markets
ASX 200 Session Chart
The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 23.3 points higher at 9,198.6, 0.44% from its session low and 0% from its high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers beat decliners by 162 to 112.
For the week, the XJO finished up 177.93 points or 1.96% higher, 0% from its intraweek high and 1.97% from its intraweek low.
Fund flows: Something’s rotten in the state of Denmark!
Shenanigans.
At the circus.
= Circus shenanigans! 🤡
That was this reporting season. Today capped one-helluva month of hits misses — and quite frankly — the wildest individual and even sector-based moves I’ve seen in a very, very long time.
That is, short of periods when markets don’t know how much of the human race will be around this time next year — à la 2020 / COVID — or whether there’ll be a financial system this time next year — à la 2008 / GFC.
I’m not kidding. Each day, when I collate the Interesting Moves lists below… Gainers and Fallers… There’ll be 20 stocks with plus or minus 10% moves. It’s just not normal — not even for reporting season.
I’ve shared with you my views on this: Algorithms (dare I even say AI-based algo’s) are wreaking havoc with global fund flows. All or nothing… and then back again… sometimes in hours or days.
But that’s the shorter term algo’s. I still believe there’s plenty of capital trading higher order trends, and therefore, are perpetuating the types of moves — measured in weeks and months and sometimes, years — that we’re targeting.
If you, like me, think that something’s rotten in the state of Denmark, and if you have an AFR subscription, this article is definitely worth a read: ‘Enshittification’ of ASX is no joke. Something vital may be breaking (https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/enshittification-of-asx-is-no-joke-something-vital-may-be-breaking-20260227-p5o5zu)
Whatever your view on what’s driving this influx of volatility is, one thing is for sure: you better have a robust set of tools and processes to help you navigate the maelstrom.
The time for the old BHP Technique (i.e., Buy, Hold, Hope & Pray 🙏) is passed. 🪦
Just consider the fact that we can make a new high without probably half the benchmark index going up! Diversification is risk management? 🤔
Not over the last 6 months — it’s been a recipe for disaster!
Anyways, it wasn’t my plan to pose such existential questions on a Friday evening, merely to say: Bloody hell I’m glad another reporting season is over! 😉
Today's best blue chip gainers
Company
Last Price
Change $
Change %
1mo %
1yr %
Block (XYZ)
$94.15
+$20.5
+27.8%
+3.1%
-8.5%
Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)
$18.98
+$1.74
+10.1%
+21.7%
+177.1%
Capricorn Metals (CMM)
$14.72
+$0.72
+5.1%
-8.3%
+86.8%
Car Group (CAR)
$26.52
+$1.2
+4.7%
-8.3%
-29.4%
Technology One (TNE)
$26.07
+$1.14
+4.6%
+0.8%
-14.2%
REA Group (REA)
$166.39
+$5.83
+3.6%
-12.0%
-29.7%
Perseus Mining (PRU)
$6.00
+$0.19
+3.3%
-6.3%
+98.7%
Genesis Minerals (GMD)
$7.43
+$0.22
+3.1%
-11.8%
+130.0%
Qantas Airways (QAN)
$9.95
+$0.28
+2.9%
-2.0%
+8.0%
Life360 (360)
$24.57
+$0.56
+2.3%
-15.2%
+13.0%
Ramsay Health Care (RHC)
$43.07
+$0.95
+2.3%
+19.0%
+19.0%
Northern Star Resources (NST)
$30.28
+$0.66
+2.2%
+2.7%
+72.0%
Computershare (CPU)
$30.99
+$0.66
+2.2%
-6.6%
-24.9%
Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)
$48.08
+$0.97
+2.1%
-11.7%
-35.2%
Lendlease Group (LLC)
$4.20
+$0.08
+1.9%
-15.3%
-31.8%
Pro Medicus (PME)
$130.00
+$2.4
+1.9%
-28.5%
-50.6%
Macquarie Group (MQG)
$213.48
+$3.93
+1.9%
+0.6%
-7.5%
Wash H. Soul Patt's (SOL)
$38.25
+$0.64
+1.7%
-0.4%
+10.2%
Hub24 (HUB)
$97.80
+$1.55
+1.6%
-3.3%
+25.4%
APA Group (APA)
$9.20
+$0.14
+1.5%
+3.1%
+22.0%
Today's worst blue chip losers
Company
Last Price
Change $
Change %
1mo %
1yr %
Coles Group (COL)
$20.56
-$1.63
-7.3%
-2.3%
+0.9%
IGO (IGO)
$8.62
-$0.31
-3.5%
+0.6%
+104.3%
Sigma Healthcare (SIG)
$2.84
-$0.1
-3.4%
-8.1%
-5.0%
Nextdc (NXT)
$13.88
-$0.46
-3.2%
+5.2%
+2.0%
Worley (WOR)
$11.34
-$0.37
-3.2%
-13.8%
-27.1%
Wisetech Global (WTC)
$47.54
-$1.46
-3.0%
-20.0%
-49.4%
Atlas Arteria (ALX)
$4.80
-$0.12
-2.4%
-2.2%
-7.9%
Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN)
$10.71
-$0.22
-2.0%
-3.1%
+0.5%
Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX)
$10.00
-$0.2
-2.0%
-9.7%
-67.1%
Steadfast Group (SDF)
$4.40
-$0.07
-1.6%
-16.4%
-22.4%
AMP (AMP)
$1.300
-$0.02
-1.5%
-21.0%
-5.5%
Commonwealth Bank (CBA)
$174.62
-$2.65
-1.5%
+17.5%
+11.7%
Metcash (MTS)
$3.30
-$0.05
-1.5%
-1.2%
+3.1%
Treasury Wine Estates (TWE)
$4.54
-$0.06
-1.3%
-15.8%
-58.0%
Sandfire Resources (SFR)
$20.19
-$0.26
-1.3%
-5.3%
+87.5%
Pinnacle Investment (PNI)
$15.72
-$0.2
-1.3%
-7.6%
-31.9%
Cleanaway Waste (CWY)
$2.55
-$0.03
-1.2%
+2.4%
-1.2%
PLS Group (PLS)
$5.19
-$0.06
-1.1%
+13.1%
+156.9%
Woolworths Group (WOW)
$36.00
-$0.35
-1.0%
+17.7%
+17.3%
Eagers Automotive (APE)
$24.00
-$0.22
-0.9%
-14.3%
+96.0%
ChartWatch
Nasdaq Composite Index
Analysis
“In the nature of bull markets”, huh!? 🤦
How about “nothing goes up in a straight line”!? 😁
Thursday’s candle comes with the territory — trend following, not prognostication.
But, while it’s not the template of demand-side control we were hoping for, it isn’t a total supply-side washout, either.
That downward pointing shadow, roughly half the candle’s length, suggests we’re still in modest buy the dip mode.
The long term uptrend ribbon’s influence seems intact!
As a result, I don’t think a whole lot has changed because of Thursday’s candle. Apart from that giant dark green caterpillar crawling bottom-left-top-right up the Comp’s chart (i.e., the long term uptrend ribbon! 🐛) the short term trend, price action, and candles since the October high all suggest equilibrium.
This means we shouldn’t be surprised by Thursday’s pullback — nor by the choppy price action that preceded it.
This is also the nature of the beast — the Equilibrium Beast! ⚖️
There’s an old saying among old trend followers: “In choppy markets, trend followers get chopped up!” 🪓
This is exactly why I created the Portfolio Management Model. It’s designed to slash the amount of capital I have to play with for a particular market when its benchmark index isn’t in a strong uptrend.
It ensures that I live to fight another day, or more specifically: to ride the next fantastic trend!
Talking about old trend followers, and staying out of choppy markets, here’s your weekend viewing sorted: LEGENDARY trend follower Ed Seykota
